Wheat Outlook: Higher projected imports raise 2013/14 ending stocks

ff_admin
Farm Forum

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised 10 million bushels with higher expected imports from a larger wheat crop in Canada. U.S. trade and food use changes by class largely reflect higher projected exports by Canada. Hard red spring (HRS) wheat imports are raised 10 million bushels and durum imports are raised 5 million bushels. Partly offsetting is a 5-million-bushel reduction in projected soft red winter wheat imports. Food use is raised 10 million bushels for HRS wheat and lowered 10 million bushels for hard red winter (HRW) wheat. HRS wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels reflecting increased competition from Canadian spring wheat. HRW wheat exports are raised an offsetting 10 million bushels on the strong pace of sales and shipments in recent weeks. Projected all wheat ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels. The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average farm price is narrowed 10 cents on each end of the range to $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel, well below the 2012/13 record of $7.77 per bushel.

Increased foreign production forecast for 2013/14 boosts world wheat supplies this month. The increase in world wheat supplies and slightly lower consumption raise projected world ending stocks. U.S. wheat export prospects are unchanged, while European Union (EU-27) and Canadian exports are on the rise.

Higher Projected Imports Raise 2013/14 Supplies and Ending Stocks

Projected 2013/14 imports and supplies are raised 10 million bushels this month. Imports are raised to 140 million bushels with expected higher hard red spring (HRS) and durum imports from Canada. Total use for 2013/14 is unchanged from August. There are, however, offsetting food use and export changes that shift more hard red winter (HRW) to export markets and more HRS for domestic use. Thus, ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected up 10 million bushels from August to 561 million bushels. These projected 2013/14 ending stocks are down 157 million bushels from 2012/13.

Total production is forecast at 2,114 million bushels, is unchanged this month, but down 155 million bushels from 2012/13. Forecast area planted and harvested is unchanged this month. The average all-wheat yield is 46.2 bushels per acre.

Winter Wheat Areas and Production are Unchanged This Month

Hard red winter (HRW) production is forecast at 791 million bushels, down 212 million bushels from a year ago. The HRW yield is forecast at 38.9 bushels per acre, down from last year’s 40.7 bushels. Production is down this year from 2012 due partially to the lower planted area for the 2013 crop, and both a higher abandonment rate and a lower yield because of severe drought and spring freeze damage.

Soft red winter (SRW) production is forecast at 542 million bushels, up 122 million bushels from last year. The SRW yield is 62.1 bushels per acre, up from last year’s 60.3 bushels. SRW production is forecast higher than 2012 because of larger harvested area and higher yield.

White winter wheat production for 2013 is estimated to total 209 million bushels. The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white winter wheat are as follows (hard white winter = HWW and soft white winter = SWW):

2013

· Planted area (million acres): 0.33 HWW, 3.05 SWW

· Harvested area (million acres): 0.26 HWW, 2.95 SWW

· Yield (bushels/acre): 46.0 HWW, 66.8 SWW

· Production (million bushels): 11.9 HWW, 197.2 SWW

2012

· Planted area (million acres): 0.34 HWW, 3.00 SWW

· Harvested area (million acres): 0.29 HWW, 2.91 SWW

· Yield (bushels/acre): 46.0 HWW, 71.6 SWW

· Production (million bushels): 13.3 HWW, 208.3 SWW

Spring Wheat Areas and Production Are Unchanged This Month

Hard red spring (HRS) production is forecast at 475 million bushels, 30 million bushels below 2012. HRS yields are forecast at 41.7 bushels, down from last year’s 44.0 bushels. Both yields and harvested area are down from 2012.

White spring production is estimated to total 36.5 million bushels, 1.0 million less than 2012. The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white spring wheat are as follows (hard white spring = HWS and soft white spring = SWS):

2013

· Planted area (million acres): 0.13 HWS, 0.46 SWS

· Harvested area (million acres): 0.12 HWS, 0.45 SWS

· Yield (bushels/acre): 74.8 HWS, 61.5 SWS

· Production (million bushels): 9.0 HWS, 27.5 SWS

2012

· Planted area (million acres): 0.12 HWS, 0.48 SWS

· Harvested area (million acres): 0.11 HWS, 0.46 SWS

· Yield (bushels/acre): 74.3 HWS, 62.7 SWS

· Production (million bushels): 8.5 HWS, 29.0 SWS

Durum wheat production is forecast to total 60.2 million bushels, down 22 bushels million from a year ago. Durum production is forecast down compared to 2012 because of lower area. Durum yield for 2013/14 is forecast at 40.1 bushels per acre, higher than last year’s 39.0 bushels.

Projected 2013/14 Use Is Down Slightly From 2012/13

Projected total use for 2013/14 is 2,411 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from 2012/13. Domestic use is expected to be down slightly more than exports are projected to increase. Domestic use is down because feed and residual use is expected to fall 110 million bushels from 2012/13 to 280 million bushels. Total food use is expected up with population growth and expected lower flour extraction than in 2012/13. Projected exports for 2013/14 are 93 million bushels higher than 2012/13 exports.

2013/14 Price Range Projection

The 2013/14 season-average farm price range is projected at $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel, narrowed from $6.40 to $7.60 per bushel in August. The 2013/14 range is down from the record $7.77 per bushel reported for 2012/13.

USDA Wheat Baseline, 2013-22

A summary of the historical forces determining U.S. wheat supply and utilization,

along with the analysis underlying the wheat projections for 2013-22, is available at

http://1.usa.gov/1aQaWZg.