Market analyst: Bull market resumes after weeklong vacation

Ray Grabanski
Special to the Farm Forum

The bull market is once again rearing its head, with soybeans rallying to new highs overnight and into Tuesday morning, breaking above the $11.60 resistance and heading towards next resistance at $12.

Soybeans continue to rally on the realization that even the U.S. Department of Agriculture now projects 190 million bushel carryover to finish this year, and that’s with U.S. soybean yields still forecast a bushel/acre too high, and corn yields probably high as well.

That means rationing is necessary - yes, rationing! Just a few months ago in August, USDA told us we had plentiful grains all across the U.S., with another bumper crop on the way. But that was pathetically wrong.

In fact, it was so badly wrong that you would think they would be looking for new jobs, as they are not very good at economic forecasting. Perhaps they can find work in the U.S. government running elections, as that standard doesn’t seem very high, either!

Weather is still somewhat adverse in South America, with a bit drier than normal weather forecast in southern Brazil and Argentina for next week.

Temperatures will be moderate, but the lack of rainfall is a bit concerning. U.S. weather doesn’t matter much now, but it is encouraging that the drought from August through October appears to have ended in late October. That doesn’t matter much for now, as winter doesn’t typically provide much soil moisture level changes in the corn belt.

Harvest in the U.S. is wrapping up, with corn 95% harvested (8% ahead of normal), and soybeans 96% harvested (3% ahead of normal). Cotton is 69% harvested (5% ahead of normal), sunflowers are 88% harvested (13% ahead of normal) and sorghum is 94% harvested (7% ahead of normal).

Winter wheat is 96% planted (2% ahead of normal), and 85% emerged (1% ahead of normal). Winter wheat conditions improved to 46% good/excellent, up 1% as weather continues to cooperate in the past few weeks. Now we are only 6% behind last year’s 52% good/excellent rating, so the winter wheat crop continues to improve after a bad start.

Soil moisture conditions in the U.S. also improved again this week with some much needed precipitation last week. Topsoil moisture is up 3% to 59% rated adequate/surplus, and subsoil up 2% to 55% adequate/surplus.

Still, both numbers are quite poor compared to last year’s high soil moisture rating. But it is encouraging that at least we aren’t nosediving in soil moisture like we were in late summer/early fall.

Still not much change in the national news: President Donald Trump can’t seem to pinpoint how exactly the election was stolen from him after midnight by Biden in the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia after Trump had a comfortable lead early in the night. Focus has turned to the Dominion voting machines.

So we move forward in mid-November to another year, with Thanksgiving just around the corner. We can still thank God we live in America, the greatest place in the world, the land of opportunity and where the American dream is alive and well - at least for half of Americans, who just want the opportunity to be do something great with their life and have their success be determined by their own merits. After all, that’s why we left Europe in the first place, and why immigrants all over the world still want to leave their homeland to come here for the same opportunity.

But I think there are now lots of “socialists” in the U.S. who are trying to kill it. If you are in the top half, meaning you can actually hold a job, that isn’t good news. I think everyone gets ‘equal’ by taking from you, and usually talented people don’t give up easy. That’s why socialists and communists always have to kill or “re-educate” so many when they get power, just like they have always done in their hundred years of history.